What Antarctic sea-level rise estimates to 2050 should be used for decision-making?
| Thursday, August 27, 2026 |
| 11:55 AM - 12:00 PM |
Overview
Prof Matt King, UTAS
Speaker
Prof Matt King
Arc Laureate Fellow
University Of Tasmania
What Antarctic sea-level rise estimates to 2050 should be used for decision-making?
Abstract Document
We focus on the Antarctic contribution to sea level through 2050 to improve sea-level rise estimates for decadal decision-making. We compare ISMIP6 2100 ice-sheet model-derived projections with data-driven estimates over the period 2015-2050. We find that models divide into two categories of response based on their initialisation approach, with spin-up-style models generally showing little response to forcing (relative to their control) over this period, even under a high emissions scenario, while data assimilation models suggest increased change in the Amundsen Sea Embayment and parts of East Antarctica, and accelerating ice loss along the Siple Coast. We then focus on the data assimilation models and explore their projection of the dynamic contribution to sea levels by 2050. We complement these with data-driven estimates based on models fit to gridded satellite gravimeter and altimeter data, while also considering natural climate variability that causes decadal-scale surface mass balance variations. Finally, we explore the differences and sensitivities in sea level fingerprints deriving from these estimates and their potential implications for decision-making processes.
Biography
Matt King is an ARC Laureate Fellow and Professor of Polar Geodesy at the University of Tasmania. He was Director of the Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science (ACEAS) 2020-2026. He works on ice sheet change, solid Earth deformation, and sea-level rise.